It's Starting To Look A Lot Like El Niño

Recent weeks have revealed a rather rapid transformation in the Pacific Ocean of anomalous warming sea surface temperatures in a pattern looking more and more like El Niño. We just experienced one of the most powerful such events in recorded history just two years ago and yet here we are again perhaps. Recent flooding in Peru of almost unprecidented magnitude coupled with the warming sea surface anomalies revealed in this map coupled with the fact that the Australian computer models are more bullish than the American ones in regards to El Niño development later this year, have me convinced we are indeed headed in that direction. Will this mean another wet winter-spring in 2017-2018? Only time will tell!

Graphic of the Day - Drought Busted

As this image clearly demonstrates, the recent series of Pineapple Express Pacific storms, coming a year after one of the most powerful El Niño events on record failed to bring much rain to the southern half of the state although the northern half did receive decent rain amounts, has shrunk California's five-year drought to a considerate degree in a very short period of time despite the current weak La Niña. Current weather models are showing another Pineapple Express setting up across the Pacific and thus another deluge approaches California. God is good! Image courtesy NWS (all rights reserved).

Picture of the Day - Pine Mt. Storm Approach

Today I hiked Pine Mountain in Atascadero, CA. An El Nino-flavored storm was moving into the area at the time which made for an invigorating experience as I felt the storm's energy build in the atmosphere over the course of the walk. As those who follow this blog already know, one of my favorite things to do is to be out in the weather as a storm of any type approaches. I derive great inspiration and healing from feeling the atmosphere change and the power build as the winds pick up intensity and the sky lowers and more cloud texture becomes apparent. Photo by Kim Patrick Noyes (all rights reserved).

Picture of the Day - California Dreamin'

Today the Central Coast of California was warmed and stirred by mild Santa Ana Winds which were more intense further south and will intensify in the coming days with near-record temperatures possible as well as the threat of wildfires despite the recent rains from the current record-setting El Niño. Above is the quintessential California mid-wintertime image of a palm tree being stirred by Santa Ana Winds with a background of a clear deep-blue sky. The photo was taken this afternoon in Atascadero, CA.
Photo courtesy of Kim Patrick Noyes (all rights reserved).

Picture of the Day - A~Town Buttermilk Sky

This is an unaltered/unenhanced image I captured early this evening at the intersection of Curbaril Avenue and El Camino Real in Atascadero, CA. It features a setting sun illuminating a buttermilk sky/mackerel sky as the next powerful El Niño enhanced storm approaches with a Pineapple Express component. The associated fetch of atmospheric moisture reaches out to the west beyond Hawaii and extends across the Pacific Ocean eastward through California and across North America into the Great Lakes region.
Photo by Kim Patrick Noyes (all rights reserved).

Graphic of the Day - El Niño From Hell IV

This is what the ongoing El Niño looked like from Jason-2 ten days ago on January 8, 2016. The previous image HERE was captured December 27, 2015. Notice there is a lot more that is above average than below average in regards to ocean surface temperatures and near-surface temperatures. For more on this check HERE.  Image courtesy of NOAA (all rights reserved).

Backtracking From A Flash Flood

This was the scene on Highway 23 in Ventura County between Fillmore, CA, and Moorpark, CA, this past Wednesday as a thunderstorm passed over the area. It reveals the second half of the fire-flood cycle that is so prevalent here in California. This thunderstorm was part of a large storm system that was one in a series this week that had a distinctly El Niño characteristic.

My Crazy California Morning

Weird morning to start the day.... I woke up in Paso Robles to the sounds of loud rain and thunder and vivid lightning which freaked out cat and dog.... a check of Twitter revealed that a house had caught fire in nearby Atascadero due to being struck by lightning and a modular home with a woman inside it was flipped by a weak tornado on the east side of town this a.m. .... then as I left Paso Robles on Spring Street southbound towards US101 riding with my carpool driver (my friend Blake), I noticed an unmarked constable SUV with front hidden lights all lit up headed back to the police station, the driver having forgotten his lights were still on.... my carpool driver had seen him and another constabulary unit searching a car over by the Arco Station on Niblick Road en route to pick me up.... on the south side of the Cuesta Grade en route to Cal Poly we, encountered the aftermath of an apparent police chase with about eight constabulary autos, a fire truck, and an ambulance all parked behind it, but some distance away from a car that had driven northbound off the highway and up a hill a short distance. It turns out the car contained a woman driver threatening to harm herself and which standoff lasted most of the morning.... we arrived on campus to no buses running and a Cal Poly text alert informing us that a bomb threat shut down all San Luis Obispo bus service and we learned later it was a Cal Poly student who prompted it as the bus entered the campus while packed with student en route to class.... then during the second half of my first class which runs from 10 a.m. to 12 p.m., a raging thunderstorm swept over campus with torrential rains, high winds, and pounding thunder all three of which I could hear (as well as a girl's shriek at one point) from inside my classroom down in the bowels of the PAC (Performing Arts Center).... fortunately, the afternoon and evening today were much more sedate.

Graphic of the Day - El Niño Get's Its MJO

This interesting graphic comes to us courtesy of a Discover Magazine blog post HERE. It refers to the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Tropical Pacific Ocean that is currently intensifying the ongoing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. (Earth image: Japan Meteorological Agency. Diagram: Mike Baker, National Weather Service, Boulder, Colorado. Graphics mashup: Tom Yulsman)

Picture of the Day - "El Niño"

The late and beloved SNL icon Chris Farley contributed his memorable character, "El Niño", to weather history in this skit which ran in the fall of 1997 within several weeks of his untimely death due to drug overdose.  Watch entirety of skit HERE. I chose to share this today because after all the nay-saying by the nattering nabobs of negativity in regards to a stormy weather pattern not having yet arrived, El Niño really has arrived and today California got a fairly decent clobbering from the atmosphere with damage reported.
Image courtesy NBC (all rights reserved).

Graphic of the Day - El Niño From Hell III

This is the latest comparisonal false-color graphic comparing the last powerful El Niño with the ongoing event. This graphic shows departures from normal of sea surface temperatures with blues into purples showing below average temps and reds into whites showing above average temperatures. It is obvious this event is more powerful and pervasive spatially especially as compared to last October when I previously posted this graphic comparison HERE.
Image courtesy of NASA.

Picture of the Day - Change On The Wind

Earlier this evening I had a security detail at a wedding at the AARP building in Atascadero, CA. I arrived 15 minutes early and captured this image looking southeastward just before 4 p.m. PST. What is revealed is the drought-afflicted, dry lakebed of Atascadero Lake, previously submerged ruins, and a sky indicating a change in the weather pattern from cold and dry shifting to a more El Niño weather pattern with an invigorated subtropical jet stream guiding a series of Pacific storms into California in the coming days. Photo by Kim Patrick Noyes (all rights reserved).

Top Ten Most Significant Disasters of 2015

Below are what I consider the most significant disasters of 2015 in descending order of relative significance to me. Others undoubtedly and perhaps justifiably would arrange these differently and trade some out for other events not listed. There were other events I was tempted to list but this is my final selection for 2015.

1. El Niño 2015-2016 - This event effected the entire world throughout most of the year and whose ancillary events killed thousands of people around the world in droughts, famines, wildfires, floods, storms, landslides, and such. 
2. Nepal Earthquake - M7.8 event on April 25th in the Himalayan Mountains killed over 9,000 people and injured over 23,000 people.
3. Mina Hajj Stampede - The most deadly stampede to date at the hajj in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, killed 2,411 pilgrims on September 24th. Worshippers from all over the world, particularly Persian people, were among the casualties which further soured relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. 
4. Russian Metrojet Flight 9268 - This passenger flight was destroyed by an ISIS bomb over the Sinai Desert of Egypt on October 31st killing all 224 people aboard.  
5. Tianjin Explosions - This spectacular nighttime industrial accident in China on August 12th killed 173 people officially but possibly actually 1,400 people, including 95 of over 1,000 firefighters fighting the fire as well as 11 policemen.
6. Illapel Earthquake - M8.3 event on September 16th along the coast of Chile generated a Pacific-wide tsunami with local run-ups to 15 feet and 3 feet in Hawaii. 13 people were killed by the quake and 6 are missing.
7. Western North America Drought - The ongoing Western Drought continued this year with California entering its third or fourth year of drought depending upon how one counts it. This drought in the aggregate may become the most costly disaster in United States history. California was the hardest hit by the drought in 2015 which led to water shortages and rationing, massive water pumping and resulting damaging land subsidence in the Central Valley, distressing tree mortality in forests across the state, and unprecedented wildfire behavior.
8. Valley Fire - This 76,000 acre fire began on September 12th in Lake County, California. It was pushed by powerful winds in drought-withered fuels quickly over-running a helitack crew burning 4 firefighters on the initial attack and killed four civilians in the following hours. It devastated parts or all of entire communities including Anderson Springs, Cobb, Harbin Hot Springs, Hidden Valley Lake, and Middletown, CA. Destroyed were 1,955 structures including 1,281 homes, 27 multi-family structures, 66 commercial properties and 581 other structures.
9. Hurricane Patricia - Strongest cyclone ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere struck Mexico on October 23rd with no casualties (6 were killed earlier in Central America). At its peak it had the most powerful maximum sustained winds ever recorded anywhere on Earth (200 mph) and the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded anywhere on Earth (879 mb).
10. Canadian Wildfires - A perfect storm of longer-term climate change, short-term drought, and decades of fire suppression conspired to generate unprecedented wildfire behavior in the boreal forests of Canada this year.

Graphic of the Day - El Niño Rainfall Probabilities

Graphic of the Day - El Niño From Hell II

This is the latest comparisonal false-color graphic comparing the last powerful El Niño with the ongoing event. This graphic shows departures from normal of sea surface temperatures with blues into purples showing below average temps and reds into whites showing above average temperatures. It is obvious this event is more powerful and pervasive spatially. Compare this to the previous graphic 2-1/2 months ago HERE.
Image courtesy of NASA.

Graphic of the Day - El Niño From Hell

This El Niño is getting narly and gnarly. The graphic above is self-explanatory and comes courtesy of NOAA.

Wind current and thermal map relative to normal courtesy of earth.nullschool.net. It brings to mind the movie Pacific Rim.

Picture of the Day - Parkhill Country

Today my buddy Mike and I and our dogs took another hike out at east Santa Margarita Lake off of River Road. And again like a week ago we ventured off of the familiar, beaten path and saw the eastern part of Santa Margarita Lake Park from a different perspective. I shot this image from a  hilltop perspective looking east toward just south of Black Mountain. Note the tectonically uplifted Miocene riverbottom deposits covered in chaparral so typical of the Parkhill Country in and around Santa Margarita Lake. Also note the clouds gathering as the big El Niño-esque "pineapple express" approached our region today. Photo by Kim Patrick Noyes (all rights reserved).

Random Musings of a Ramblin' Fool L

Almost half a year (5-1/2 months) has transpired since I last posted one of these columns. For those of you who don't know it, the L in the title above is the Roman numeral for the number 50. This blog has picked up over 70,000 more visits and added 209 additional posts since last June 30th's Random Musings. During that time my monthly productivity never dropped below 30 posts per month whereas there were four months in the first half of this year which saw monthly post totals in the teens. July to August saw individual visits to this blog exceed 13,000 each month. This edition of Random Musings will be more Kim-centric than I'd like but I must get you all caught up on things with me since last I opined upon such things here.

Fall 2014 Cal Poly Quarter Synopsis

Last week was finals week at Cal Poly. This is my first week of Christmas vacation which I am thoroughly enjoying. So what happened this just-ended quarter at Cal Poly? I took 15 units which is considered a bit heavy a course load for the first quarter of a transfer from a community college. What courses did I take?

I took a 2-unit History 100 (Introduction to the Study (and Practice) of History) with Dr. Kathleen Murphy. This class is a prerequisite for taking any additional history classes at Cal Poly as it teaches one the basics of how to study history.  In this class I started my research on the Cal Poly Plane Crash which I intend to pursue further in my senior project and Master's thesis. In this class I earned an A-.

I took a 4-unit Spanish 103 (Elementary Spanish III) with Dr. Anthony Rector. I could have taken this course at Cuesta College but it would have required I go to the SLO campus four or five days a week which was a non-starter for me. Consequently, I had to take it at Cal Poly. It is a prerequisite for taking Spanish 201 which I am signed up for next quarter and is a terminal level Spanish class for me (meaning it is as high as I have to go to get a bachelor's degree). I struggled in this class as I do not have an aptitude for learning new languages and my 44 year-old mind is not at the stage of life where it is most apt to learn a new language. Also, I did not work as hard in this class as I could have or should have in hind-sight. In this class I earned a C.

I took a 5-unit History 303 (Research and Writing Seminar in History) with Dr. Christina Firpo. There were two versions of this course offered this past quarter. I took the one which sounded less interesting, to wit, "Race, Sex, and Orientalism in Colonial Southeast Asia." It was the one with available openings although the other version of the class with Dr. Trice sounded more interesting subject matter-wise, but was full. Dr. Firpo's class was the hardest class I have ever experienced and any grade in it (I feel) is equivalent to the next letter grade up if all other factors are considered equal. I also learned more in that class than in any other class I have ever experienced. Dr. Firpo forced me to become a better writer and added multiple additional facets to my writing ability for which I am forever indebted to her. That is true despite the fact I was miserable at times during the class as I was forced out of my comfort zone which was what I needed in order to get better. She also taught me some neat-o research tricks which will be useful to me. In this class I earned a B which feels like an A and I am proud of that B.

I took a 4-unit Geography 308 (Global Geography) with Dr. Peter Osterroth initially and down the stretch with Dr. Meg Streiff. This class started out slow and a bit weird as an over-the-hill and long-in-the-tooth German language instructor who happened to be a geography PhD from way back when filled in for the instructor who usually taught the class as she went on sabbatical. He also taught some sociology classes. As the quarter progressed he got more erratic and began to conflate the curriculae of his geography and sociology classes. Enough complaints filtered in that they shit-canned him mid-quarter and brought back the instructor who went on sabbatical. She rocked and geography clicked so much with me I have decided to make it my minor instead of political science. In this class I earned an easy A.

I ended the Fall 2014 quarter with a 3.093 GPA.

Things I Didn't Do At Cal Poly

I had planned on joining the team of volunteers for the Rose Bowl Float this fall, but due to my time constraints with school and with work for Vino Vice, Inc. I could not make it work. I hope that next fall it will work out for me to volunteer for that project. I also did not make it to a single meeting of the on-campus Christian club this past quarter which met on the Dexter Lawn each Thursday morning at 11 a.m. I fully intend to start making these meetings when my schedule allows sometime next year. Winter 2015 quarter does not look promising, unfortunately, given my schedule. I did not date a Poly Dolly. Perhaps I'm too old for that sort of thing and given I am limiting myself to Christian ladies that may thoroughly eliminate any such possibility... which is fine with me if that is God's will.... but there's nothing wrong with wishing.

I SOARed But Didn't WOW

Last August I attended SOAR (Student Orientation And Registration) voluntarily, but did not attend WOW (Week of Welcome) last September. However, I just discovered via Twitter that starting next fall it will be mandatory for all incoming students to attend both. SOAR is an absolute must for any incoming student which makes this pronouncement a wise thing. However, I'm less certain about WOW. As a 44 year-old single guy I felt that my presence there might have held a creepy factor. I am old enough to be these nascent Polly Dolly's daddy and hanging out with new students and their parents didn't seem appetizing to a guy already slightly self-conscious of his age going back to school and for whom being a multi-decadal local made orientation less useful.

What's Next For Me At Cal Poly

I have signed up for four classes worth 16 units in Winter 2015 quarter. I am enrolled in a 4-unit Spanish 201 (Intermediate Spanish I). I am on the waiting list for a 4-unit History 214 (Political Economy of Latin America and the Middle East). I am enrolled in a 4-unit History 304 (Historiography) which is the next and final history prerequisite for me. It will study historical writing including historical theory such as those of Marx and Foucualt. I am also enrolled in a 4-unit History 322 (History of Modern America). If I don't get into History 214 I will still be doing 12 units in three challenging classes and a slight break might not be a bad thing for me.

Big Changes at Vino Vice

Vino Vice changed hands as the founding owner Jim Davis sold it to my friend Geoff Auslen. This change will allow for continued growth of the business as is already being manifested. Before the change I seemed on track to become a supervisor and that seems to still be the case. Work for this company has been a convenient and invaluable augmentation to my student loans and grants and has offset the loss of my job with Rocks & Relics early last year.

El Niño Or Not, It's Raining Bunches

Climatologists still haven't officially declared an El Niño as the atmosphere does not seem to yet agree with what the Pacific Ocean itself is suggesting about current state of ENSO. However, we are in a wet pattern the likes we have not seen since at least 2005, the last time we got a good El Niño soaking... although that was a weak El Niño like the current one if it even officially becomes one. Just to confuse things it is worth noting that 2009-2010 was a moderate El Niño rainy season, the last previous season for El Niño. No memorable rain patterns or singular storms occurred then such as we have been experiencing in recent weeks in California. Cleary, if we get a lot of rain or not is much more complex a dynamic than merely to El Niño, or not to El Niño.

*Note: I have many more things to discuss in this space but not the time to do it tonight. Hopefully I will post another Random Musings before the New Year.

Picture of the Day - El Niño Sky

California has been blessed of late with a wet weather pattern which looks to continue into the near future with a major Pacific storm rolling into the Central Coast overnight into tomorrow perhaps into day after tomorrow. This was the El Niño-y scene late this afternoon from the intersection of Jardine Road and Highway 46 east of Paso Robles, CA.
Photo by Kim Patrick Noyes (all rights reserved).

Stormy Cal Poly In Three Pix

Today was stormy and for the second time this quarter at Cal Poly there were puddles of water to be found on-campus. This was the view today from the roof of Building Five (Architecture & Environmental Design) looking eastward into Reservoir Canyon.

The clock bell on the north end of Building Two (Education Building) was ringing as I shot this image with the backdrop of an El Niño-looking sky that threatened to rain here but ended up raining in the North County instead.

This is indisputably the most iconic natural feature in San Luis Obispo (Bishop Peak) as viewed to the west from the roof of Building five today with the aforementioned El Niño-looking. All photos by Kim Patrick Noyes (all rights reserved).